Friday, July 14, 2006

Songs of Peace

Thursday, July 13, 2006

Several steps back?

The events unfolding in the Middle East -- Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, and who knows where next -- are disheartening, frightening, and most of all, filled with uncertaintly. We may be witnessing a rapid and significant shift backwards in the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Some might think that the Oslo Peace process officially died when the Palestinians launched a wave of suicide bombings in Sempteber 2000. But that would only be telling half of the story -- the Oslo Accords of 1993 brought another significant development, which until today, remained on life support. Recall that before 1993, resolution of the Isreali-Palestinian conflict rested in the hands of the Arab World, led by Jordan and Egypt, the two countries that had formerly annexed and occupied the West Bank and the Gaza Strip respectively. For the first time, Oslo recognized the Palestinains (in the from of the PLO and the soon to be erected Palestinian Authority) as the legitimate negotiators of a future resolution and as the owners of their own destiny. Thus when violence resumed six years ago, we still viewed it throught the lens of Palestinians versus Israelis.

Today, we realize that we were naieve not only to put our faith in the peace process (and from my perspective, to believe that the Palestinians were ready to recognize the Jewish State of Israel), but also to assume that the Palestinian people were poised to deliver peace. That is, we deluded ourselves in believing that the they had gained their voice in the process and would no longer remain pawns of other Arab countries (and Islamic Fundamentalist organizations) seeking power at their expense. Today, victimhood of the Palestinians has taken on new meanings as their future no longer rests with Abbas' Palestinian Authority -- but with the rogue states, Syria and Iran, and the terrorist entities they support, Hamas and Hizbullah.

In light of these new realities, the conflict has reverted from being local to one that is far more regional and menacing to Israel (with the notable entrance of non-Arab, Iran). Furthermore, it is no longer being invoked in the name of Pan-Arabism, but rather in the name of Jihad and Holy War. The players and ideologies may have changed, but the objective of "wiping Israel off the map" remains the same.

Stoking the flames are additional developments worthy of mention:

1) Democratization in Lebanon and Palestine -- with the recent departure of Syria from Lebanon and the election of Hamas in Palestine, their respective governments are in the position to curb terrorist attacks and be held accountable by Israel and (in theory) the rest of the world. No longer can their leaders claim that they lack control over rogue militias -- today they are one and the same.
2) Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip -- like the withdrawal from Southern Lebanon in 2000, which was a significant precursor the Second Intifada, the Islamists (among others in the Arab World) interpreted it as a sign of Israeli weakness and celebrated their military achievement, thereby emboldening them to escalate the conflict.
3) The incapactiation of Sharon and election of Olmert -- Prime Minister Olmert has the very difficult task of proving his capacity as a wartime leader. He follows the revered and reviled Sharon while lacking a considerable military record like previous Prime Ministers Barak, Netanyahu, and Rabin. He also has to demonstrate Israeli strength in the aftermath of the Gaza withdrawal.
4) Construction of the anti-terrorism barrier -- as we know by now, the construction of this barrier has rendered suicide bombing attempts futile. Thus, Hamas and and the like had no choice but to switch tactics.

It's too soon to evaluate the actions of Israel, Hamas, Hizbullah, Syria, Lebanon, etc. Of course, it's always appropriate to recite the following prayer for peace: